Warriors At Pistons (Over/Under) Preview: A Bettors Perspective
Jan 15th, 2012 by PJ LaFerla
Betting Line:
Golden State Warriors (+5.5)
Detroit Pistons (-5.5)
Over/Under 186.5
Game Time 6:05 EST
OVER/UNDER ANALYSIS:
Tomorrow is the Martin Luther King holiday and the NBA honors the great Doctor by offering a slew of games throughout the day; but because of this celebration today’s slate is limited. There are three games scheduled today and one of the games (Suns at Spurs) is off the board – leaving two games to analyze and find enough value to make a play.
That value for me comes via the total in the Warriors/Pistons match-up. Both these teams are at the bottom of their respective divisions and don’t offer much talent on the floor. In fact, they have only notched six wins combined. The Warriors (3-8) and the Pistons (3-9) certainly isn’t the marquee match-up we look forward too, but let’s not forget, our goal is to find spots that we can leverage with our research and make a wager and collect! Don’t get caught up in the game more so than what game is the right play.
We all know that the Warriors are a run and gun team with an offense first mentality. New (defensive minded) head coach, Marc Jackson may have (tried to) toned that down a bit, but, you are who you are and for Golden State offense is top of mind. That is obvious in the stats as they score nearly 100 points per game and give up 94 points per game.
The era of the Pistons known for their stingy defense is gone, giving up 94.3 points a game thus far. Let us not also forget that Pistons are old and banged up and with that comes a lackadaisical defense. They are however, trying to pass the torch to the young guys on the roster, but at least for now it’s not much of an improvement. One important fact to point out is that the Pistons are 29th in the NBA in scoring, averaging just 84.9 points per game, but their shooting woes shouldn’t be a problem when facing the Warriors.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, my analysis is pointing to making a play on over the 186.5! Home or away doesn’t matter for these teams as they aren’t producing much at either place. Against the spread numbers aren’t to impressive either. The bottom line is these two teams stink and while you may be thinking – why am I investing my time with a game like this and considering laying my money on it? Well the answer is quite simple. Teams don’t usually perform this bad when they have a good defense. So my advice is simply this: make a play on the over and don’t watch the game. Just look for a final score about three hours after the game goes off and you will be happy.
Obviously to make a prediction on the total you have to have a final score prediction on the game. Keep in mind, my prediction is on the total and has nothing to do with the ATS numbers for the game itself.
Make your play on the OVER!
PREDICTION:
Warriors 105, Pistons 99
PJ Laferla is a practicing freelance writer, professional handicapper, and the founder of SportsInput.com. If you are interested in hiring PJ Laferla for freelance writing or for winning picks against the spread, please submit all inquires to PJ@sportsinput.com.