Pacers At Lakers Preview: A Bettors Perspective
Jan 22nd, 2012 by PJ LaFerla
Betting Line:
Indiana Pacers (+5.5)
Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5)
Over/Under 178
Game Time 9:35 EST
This is the second straight matchup I am providing an analysis on with a point spread of -5.5. The difference between this game and the other is that the home team is favorite compared to last nights game where the road team was the favorite. Why is this worth mentioning and why does it matter? I will answer those questions later into the article.
GAME ANALYSIS:
The Pacers (10-4) come into this matchup as a team not to be taken lightly. They are chasing the Bulls in the division for first place, have become a force in their building as they are undefeated at home, are one of the few teams in the league with a winning record on the road at 5-4 and have held eight of their fourteen opponents to 90 points or less – coming up with wins in all of those games this season. For us bettors, I should point out that they own a very respectable 8-6 record against the spread this season. Additionally, ten of their fourteen games have stayed UNDER the posted total as they are only giving up 89.3 points a game and scoring fewer than 93 points per game on the offensive side of the ball. Things are certainly looking up for fans of the Indiana Pacers.
The Lakers (10-7) come into this game undoubtedly happy to be back in Los Angeles. They are trying to avoid losing three straight – having lost the prior two games on the road against the Florida teams (Miami Heat and Orlando Magic). Having ten wins with nine of them coming at home, one could only imagine the sigh of relief the Lakers are feeling as this game is being played at Staples Center. Even though they are dominating at home, they have an overall losing record against the spread (7-10), but at home it is a modest 6-4 winning record. The Lakers offensive efforts mirror Indiana at 92 and change on the average and on the defensive side they are also comparable with the Pacers giving up 90 points per outing. Thus far in the early going it has been the tale of two Los Angeles Lakers teams – simply put, they win at home and they lose on the road.
WHO TO BET ON?
The Lakers are seemly a team that is aging every day and the Pacers are young and building a nice nucleus to compete at a high level in this league. Yet, I am amazed at how evenly matched these two teams are on paper coming into this game. The Lakers still have Kobe Bryant who refuses to show signs of an older worn down man and comes to play with a chip on his shoulder every night. As I mentioned in my opening paragraph, playing at home for Western Conference teams seems to be a big help this season, which is evidently clear with the Lakers – winning nine of ten at Staples Center and only coming away with one road victory out of seven tries thus far. Indiana has the confidence to beat this team and they will come to Los Angeles and do their best to get the job done, but it will not happen tonight as the Lakers will come away with a victory and a point spread cover… albeit it will be a close game!
Make your play on the Los Angeles Lakers to cover the point spread.
SOME OTHER INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT THIS GAME:
~ The Pacers are 1-14 straight up in their last 15 games when playing on the road against the Lakers.
~ The Pacers own one of the best percentages when shooting three pointers at 38.2%.
~ The Lakers are 55-20 all-time versus the Pacers and 33-5 at home against them.
~ The Lakers are one of the worst three point shooting teams in the league at 25.7 %.
~ The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the Lakers last 11 games at home.
PREDICTION:
LAKERS 94, PACERS 86
PJ Laferla is a practicing freelance writer, professional handicapper, and the founder of SportsInput.com. If you are interested in hiring PJ Laferla for freelance writing or for winning picks against the spread, please submit all inquires to PJ@sportsinput.com.